Global Stock Market Weekly Summary
Week 24 was defined by two forces pulling in opposite directions: sticky inflation and a historic IPO that reshuffled capital across the market. The May CPI landed at 4.2% year-over-year, a three-year high and in line with expectations, triggering a sharp mid-week selloff before a late-week rally rescued indices into the green. SpaceX's record $75 billion IPO on Friday absorbed enormous institutional capital and closed with a ~19% first-day gain at ~$161, valuing the company above $2 trillion. The S&P 500 finished the week up roughly 0.6%, the Nasdaq added about 0.6%, and the Dow gained around 0.5%. A U.S.–Iran peace deal that sent oil prices sharply lower provided the final tailwind into the weekend. One could argue that the occurence of all these events together are more than just a lucky coincidence.
Week 24 Recap
Markets opened the week rebounding from the prior Friday's brutal chip-led selloff, with the Nasdaq leading Monday's bounce as bargain hunters stepped into semiconductor names. But optimism faded Tuesday as chip stocks pulled back again and the Nasdaq shed roughly 1%. The real shock came Wednesday: the May CPI report showed consumer prices rising 4.2% annually and 0.5% month-over-month, the highest yearly reading in three years, driven by elevated energy costs from the Iran–Strait of Hormuz crisis. The Dow tumbled ~1.9%, the S&P 500 fell ~1.6%, and the Industrials sector sank over 3%. The data cemented the "no rate cuts" narrative for 2026, with Goldman Sachs moving its first expected cut to mid-2027.
Thursday brought a recovery attempt, but geopolitical complexity intensified: Iran announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, sending oil prices up more than $2 per barrel. Simultaneously, SpaceX priced its IPO at $135 per share — the largest offering in history at $75 billion, valuing the company near $1.8 trillion pre-debut. JPMorgan data later revealed that hedge funds had been aggressively selling Magnificent Seven tech positions in the days prior to free up capital for the SpaceX allocation, amplifying the week's selling pressure on names like Apple, NVIDIA, and Microsoft.
SpaceX IPO
SpaceX (SPCX) debuted on the Nasdaq Friday at $150 per share — an 11% jump from its IPO price. before surging as high as ~$176 intraday and closing near $161, a ~19% first-day gain. The company's market capitalization closed above $2.1 trillion, making it immediately one of the most valuable publicly traded companies in the world, trailing only the very largest tech incumbents. The $75 billion capital raise is unprecedented and raises important questions about near-term market dynamics. When such a massive amount of institutional capital flows into a single name, it effectively drains liquidity from other positions. The JPMorgan prime brokerage data confirmed that hedge funds were net sellers of the largest U.S. tech stocks in the week leading up to the IPO, a pre-funding rotation that contributed to the week's earlier weakness in the Magnificent Seven. The risk of continued rotation out of existing growth holdings and into SPCX will be worth monitoring in the coming weeks as institutional portfolios settle and index funds complete their mandatory rebalancing.
Geopolitics: A Fragile De-escalation
The Iran situation seesawed through the week. Iran's announcement of the Strait of Hormuz closure on Thursday briefly panicked energy markets, but by Friday, reports of a U.S.–Iran peace deal framework emerged, sending oil prices sharply lower. WTI crude fell 2.5% to $85.47, and Brent dropped 2.2% to $88.40. The de-escalation provided a meaningful disinflationary signal and helped power Friday's late-week rally. However, the situation remains fragile. Any breakdown in negotiations could reverse the oil price decline and reignite inflation fears almost immediately.
Europe and Asia-Pacific
European equities navigated the volatility reasonably well. The STOXX 600 closed up roughly 1.4% on Friday, erasing mid-week losses, while the DAX and FTSE 100 also ended the week in positive territory. The comparatively lighter exposure to semiconductor names that drove U.S. losses in the prior week helped limit downside. In Asia, the Nikkei 225 pulled back from recent record highs amid yen strength, while the Hang Seng traded modestly lower on continued China property headwinds. The Shanghai Composite was roughly flat.
Week 25 Outlook
Week 25 is anchored by the June FOMC meeting (June 16–17) the first policy statement and press conference under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. CME FedWatch shows a 98.5% probability that the federal funds rate remains at 3.50%–3.75%, so the rate decision itself is not in doubt. What matters is the tone: does the Fed explicitly drop its easing bias and open the door to a potential rate hike given the persistent inflation data? With four of twelve FOMC members dissenting in favor of hikes at the May meeting, the hawkish wing has momentum. Any language signaling that a July hike is under active discussion would be a significant escalation and could trigger further selling in rate-sensitive sectors.
Key Events
- Monday, June 15: Retail Sales (May) consensus +0.2% MoM; Empire State Manufacturing Index; Industrial Production. Stronger retail data would reinforce the "economy is not slowing" narrative and add to hawkish pressure.
- Wednesday, June 17: FOMC rate decision (2:00 PM ET) followed by Chair Warsh's press conference (2:30 PM). The single most important event of the week. Watch for changes to the policy statement's forward guidance language.
- SPCX Week Two: SpaceX enters its second week of trading. Expect continued high volume and potential volatility as index funds complete rebalancing and institutional portfolios finalize allocations. The capital rotation dynamics that pressured big tech in Week 24 may continue.
- Iran–Strait of Hormuz: The peace deal framework is encouraging but far from finalized. Any reversal would immediately push oil prices back above $90 and complicate the Fed's calculus.
Bottom line: Week 24 showed that markets can absorb both an inflation scare and the largest IPO in history within the same five sessions and still finish green. But the underlying fragility is real: inflation remains well above target, the labor market is not cooling, and $75 billion of institutional capital has been redirected into a single name. Week 25's FOMC meeting will set the tone for the summer. If Warsh signals patience, equities could extend their recovery; if the door opens to a hike, the repricing has further to run.