Week 17 Recap & Week 18 Outlook

April 26, 2026

Another volatile week, another set of record highs. The S&P 500 (+0.8% on Friday) and Nasdaq (+1.95% on Friday) closed at all-time highs, driven by strong Intel results and cautious optimism around U.S.–Iran peace talks, even as oil surged sharply for the week and Europe lagged. Against this backdrop, our virtual portfolio reached $94,181 (+2.47% since inception), with tech (IBM, Tencent, Ubtech) dominant and our gold-producers ETF providing a useful buffer.

Week 17 in 60 Seconds

Equities: U.S. tech led again; Europe's STOXX 600 fell roughly 2.5% on the week, hurt by energy-supply concerns. Emerging markets gained ~0.8% and Asia ex-Japan rose ~0.8%.
Rates: The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield dipped to 4.306% on Friday (down ~1.7 bps on the day) but was modestly higher for the week (4.30% on Apr 21 vs. 4.26% on Apr 17).
Commodities & FX: WTI settled ~$94.40, Brent ~$105.33, sharply higher for the week despite a small Friday dip on peace-talk hopes. The dollar booked a weekly gain; spot gold advanced on Friday but still posted a weekly loss.
Earnings pulse: About 139 S&P 500 firms have reported; 81% beat EPS. The aggregate S&P 500 EPS growth estimate has ticked up to 16.1% y/y, but many CEOs flagged war-related fuel-cost pressures on forward guidance.

Portfolio Spotlight

IBM : We Bought the Dip

We initiated our IBM position on earnings day (Apr 22) after the stock sold off post-report. The market punished IBM and other software names despite beats on both top and bottom lines, largely because forward guidance didn't rise enough to satisfy AI-era expectations. We saw that reaction as an opportunity, not a red flag. Our thesis remains unchanged: IBM is a multiyear hybrid-cloud and AI turnaround play with decade-high free cash flow ($14.7B), a Confluent-powered data-AI convergence story, and 28 consecutive years of dividend increases. The -4.3% mark-to-market simply reflects that we didn't catch the absolute low, the conviction behind the entry is intact, and our watchlist still notes a potential add around ~$200 if fundamentals remain sound.

Ubtech Robotics (9880.HK) — Momentum Holds

Our best performer continued to deliver, closing at HK$105.00 on Apr 24. The recent completion of a major acquisition — lifting Ubtech's stake in Shenzhen-listed Zhejiang Fenglong Electric to 43% ,reinforces the robotics and AI automation thesis behind our position.

Tencent (0700.HK) — Quiet Consolidation

Ended the week around HK$493.40, down slightly week-over-week. We view this as healthy consolidation in a still-strong global tech environment rather than any thesis change.

Alstom (ALO.PA) — Under Pressure

Closed at €16.52 on Apr 24 (-3.1% on the day), reflecting Europe's energy-supply nerves and broader industrial weakness as the STOXX 600 posted its worst weekly decline in months.

Gold Producers ETF (IAUP.L) — Buffer Doing Its Job

Sitting +4.6% since inception as spot gold holds near ~$4,710/oz, supported by war-related inflation concerns.

Eli Lilly (LLY) — Volatile Entry Window

We started building a small position this week and the shares pulled back into Friday's close around $883.96 from ~$917 the day before, contributing to the -2.7% mark-to-market since entry. We remain focused on the long-term perspective outlined in our watchlist, with a potential add zone around ~$850.

What We're Watching in Week 18 (Apr 27 – May 1)

Earnings intensity: Four hyperscalers report in four days — META, MSFT, AMZN, AAPL — plus big pharmas including LLY (Thursday). This "Mag 7" window will shape tech sentiment and could spill over into IBM and other software names. Guidance on AI capex and cloud growth is the key variable.
Central bank & data heavy week: FOMC Wednesday (widely expected to hold rates), advance Q1 GDP and March Core PCE on Thursday, and ISM Manufacturing on Friday. The Fed's language on the inflation path matters given oil's strength and still-elevated core PCE; markets see a hold as near-certain, so the press conference will be in focus.
Geopolitics & oil: Iran-peace overtures triggered Friday's equity rally and a small dip in oil, but Brent is still near $105–$106 after a double-digit weekly surge. Any setback in talks or fresh Strait of Hormuz headlines can quickly reverse sentiment and lift energy prices again.

Bottom Line

Markets are pricing a lot of good news (record highs, strong earnings) alongside elevated geopolitical risk. We're staying focused on our multiyear theses and using Week 18's macro and earnings noise to check our assumptions, not to overhaul the portfolio. For timely updates on how we're managing each name, watch for position notes tied to the key data and prints highlighted above.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing contained herein should be construed as personalized financial, investment, tax, legal, or professional advice. The Nobel Select Portfolio is a model/virtual portfolio used strictly as an educational tool. Theoretical or simulated performance results have inherent limitations and do not represent actual trading. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.