Before a single Unitree share traded on the STAR Market, it had already been "trading" for weeks on an offshore crypto exchange. Perpetual futures on Hyperliquid priced the robot maker near US$38 billion before the listing, more than four times the ~US$9 billion valuation set by its bankers. Then Shanghai opened the stock 629% higher at a ~US$66 billion valuation, roughly 75% above even the crypto traders' implied price, before closing up 460%. This was the second big test this summer of whether crypto markets can price an IPO before it exists. We cover the debut itself in our companion analysis of the Unitree IPO. Here is what the test showed, and why we watched without trading.
At a Glance
- What they are: crypto-margined derivative and event contracts on companies that are not yet listed
- The Unitree test: a Hyperliquid perp implied ~US$38B before the debut (4x the ~US$9B offer); the open came in ~75% higher
- The SpaceX contrast: perps priced SpaceX at ~US$170 the night before its June debut; it traded $176 and closed $161, almost exactly as priced
- Legitimacy: tiered, from regulated event markets to unregulated perps to outright scams
- Our stance: watched, did not trade
The Unitree Test
The contract, UNITREE-USDC, was built by outside developer xyz.trade on Hyperliquid's infrastructure. It traded around US$92 to US$94 in the days before the listing, implying a valuation near US$38 billion, roughly four times the ~US$9 billion valuation the IPO itself set. Crypto traders were far more bullish than the bankers, and they were right to be: the stock opened 629% above the offer price. But they were still too cheap. The first public trade valued Unitree at about US$66 billion, roughly 75% above the price crypto traders had settled on, and the perp then raced higher with the stock, briefly topping US$140 before settling around US$121.
The risks were visible in real time. The market was shallow (open interest around US$29 million, against roughly US$216 million for SpaceX's contract before its debut), the contract allowed up to 10x leverage, and funding flipped negative after the listing as traders betting on a decline paid those positioned for further gains. A correct view was still a volatile ride, and with 10x leverage plus funding bleed it could easily have been a losing one. The instrument can kill you before the thesis pays you.
The SpaceX Contrast
Unitree was the second big test this summer, and the first went the other way. The night before SpaceX's June listing, perpetual futures priced the stock at the equivalent of roughly US$170 a share. SpaceX traded above US$176 in its first session and closed at US$161, almost exactly where crypto traders had expected first-day demand to land. When a market is deep and the event is well understood, crypto perps can price an IPO to within a few percent. Unitree showed the other side: a shallow market on a mania name can be directionally right and still miss the blowoff by 75%. These markets are sentiment gauges, not oracles.
How These Markets Work
- Pre-IPO perpetual futures (e.g. Hyperliquid): continuous, stablecoin-margined bets on a not-yet-listed company, typically 2-10x leverage, with periodic funding payments and a settlement tied to a defined reference (first-day close, a VWAP, or an exchange rate conversion at a set timestamp).
- Event markets (Polymarket, Kalshi): bounded, cash-settled binary contracts on defined outcomes ("Will it list by June?", "First-day pop above 50%?"). Kalshi is CFTC-regulated in the US.
- Tokenized equities (e.g. Backed Finance): 1:1 asset-backed tokens of already-listed stocks, the post-IPO cousin rather than a pre-IPO instrument.
- Scams: any unverifiable "Unitree coin" or phantom "pre-IPO allocation" is theft. Unitree has issued no token.
Legitimacy, Tiered
Tier 1, regulated: Kalshi and Polymarket's US operations, cash-settled with defined outcomes and genuine protection, though regulation fixes counterparty risk, not forecast quality, liquidity or outcome-definition disputes. Safer, not safe. Tier 2, functional but unregulated: venues like Hyperliquid have so far listed and settled markets as specified, but there is no regulator, no insurance and no recourse. "Functioning" is not "safe". Tier 3, fraud: fake pre-IPO tokens and brokers selling phantom allocations, an old scam in a new wrapper.
Before a single dollar goes in, answer all six: Who is my counterparty and where is it incorporated? How precisely does the contract settle (source, formula, FX, timing)? What happens on delay or cancellation? What are the funding mechanics and leverage caps? What is the venue's track record of settled markets? Can I withdraw at will? If you cannot answer all six, do not trade it.
Two further points before anyone calls this an opportunity. First, who benefits: pre-IPO perps let early holders and insiders monetise locked-up exposure before a listing, selling their risk to outsiders at a markup, which is exactly what the legal lock-up is designed to prevent. The derivative is the loophole. Second, who is on the other side: all too often an unqualified retail investor taking leveraged bets at odds worse than a casino table. Insiders offloading locked-up risk onto unqualified retail through an unregulated derivative is the reason we treat most of this market as gambling rather than investing.
Our Take
Our Take
We watched, and we did not trade. The Unitree debut was a perfect live experiment: crypto traders correctly saw the IPO as too cheap, yet the public market cleared above even their leveraged bets. That outcome is genuinely informative, and it is also why these instruments are not investable for most people. The structures bleed you: funding, leverage, a counterparty you cannot audit, and above all settlement-definition risk, the one that quietly destroys correct calls because the payout formula only becomes clear after the event. For the disciplined minority, the rules are unchanged: regulated venues for binary outcomes, size so a total loss is a shrug, no leverage around settlement, and never park idle margin on a venue longer than needed. We will keep watching these markets as a sentiment gauge for the robotics IPO pipeline ahead.
Verdict: a legitimate frontier that is unsuitable for most. Educational to watch, dangerous to over-trade.
Risks
- Settlement-definition risk (the biggest): STAR Market debuts can move a stock 100% or more within hours; your payout depends on the exact formula, timestamp and FX conversion the venue picks. This is where money is lost on a correct call.
- Counterparty and custody failure: a close second, and it lives with you, the customer.
- Funding and leverage: even correct views get liquidated or bled dry waiting.
- Thin liquidity: US$29 million of open interest is a rounding error next to a live stock market.
- Regulation: enforcement action or geo-blocking can strand a position mid-trade.
- No shareholder rights: you own a derivative, not the company, and the tax treatment is messy in almost every jurisdiction.
Figures from the Unitree IPO and Hyperliquid market data (August 2026), SpaceX listing (June 2026), IPO filings and press reports. This article is not investment advice.